The First Debate

Arguably one of the most analyzed presidential election debates under goes its first ever debate tonight. For the past year many different events and quotes have curated Americans’ perception of the two candidates, but tonight will bring the most concise exposure the American people have ever had to both candidates at once. The belief is that a Joe Biden will bring the market down after the election, and Donald Trump winning will bring it up after the election. In the months after the election it is hard to decide what the market will do in response to the candidates however one aspect that will most likely change is the opening up of the global economy if Biden wins due to his plans to lessen the tariffs in places such as China and Europe. Historically, the first debate has led to a .14% drop for the S&P 500 ($SPY) the next day. This is not a massive drop, but due to the erratic statements that both candidates have proven to make, one slip-up could lead to a slightly bigger slide during the open tomorrow. In addition, the theory we developed over the summer about how the market slides on Thursday opens still bears some weight even as we enter October, because the job report that comes Thursday morning hasn’t been improving over the past weeks. With this information, I have theorized that the market could very well slide over this middle portion of the week, with the intensity depending on the major takeaways from the debate tonight at 9 p.m.

-Darnel Shillingford

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